US Rental Price Trends: What Happened in 2024 and What to Expect in 2025

The US rental market spent most of 2024 in a significant correction from the historic surge of 2021–2022. But the correction hasn't been uniform — and understanding the regional differences matters enormously for renters making decisions right now. This analysis draws on Zumper's monthly National Rent Reports, Apartment List's national rental data, and Stessa's 2024–2025 rent price analysis.

Phase 1: The Surge (2021–2022)

US rents increased by an unprecedented 15–25% in most major markets between mid-2020 and late 2022. The drivers were structural: pandemic-era migration patterns (remote workers moving from high-cost metros to mid-size cities), historically low vacancy rates, under-building relative to household formation, and inflation. Sun Belt cities were hit hardest. Austin rents rose 40% in 24 months. Phoenix saw 30%+ increases. Miami and Fort Lauderdale rose over 50% from 2019 baseline.

Phase 2: The Correction (2023–2024)

By early 2023, rent growth had slowed dramatically. A wave of new apartment construction — particularly multifamily units in Sun Belt markets — began delivering supply into the market. Zumper's National Rent Report for December 2024 showed the national median 1-bedroom rent down approximately 1.2% year-over-year, the first sustained decline since the pandemic. Apartment List's data shows similar trends, with national rent growth near zero for most of 2024.

The correction has been most significant in markets that saw the biggest surges. Austin is down 10–15% from its 2022 peak. Phoenix is down 8–10%. Nashville and Atlanta have also seen moderate declines. Meanwhile, some markets — particularly in the Northeast — have continued rising, insulated by lower construction activity and persistent undersupply.

Where Markets Stand in 2025

What to Expect in 2025

Most analysts project continued stabilization in 2025, with slight rent declines in oversupplied Sun Belt markets and modest increases in supply-constrained coastal metros. Key factors:

• New supply: The apartment pipeline delivering units in 2023–2024 continues in 2025, maintaining downward pressure in Austin, Phoenix, and Charlotte.
• Demand normalization: Migration patterns are reverting toward pre-pandemic norms. The extreme inflows to Sun Belt markets that drove rents up have moderated.
• Coastal markets: New York, Boston, and San Francisco remain supply-constrained with projected 3–5% annual rent increases.
• Mortgage lock-in effect: With rates above 6.5%, many potential homebuyers are staying in rental housing longer — maintaining rental demand nationally.

"The rental market correction of 2023–2024 has been meaningful in Sun Belt markets but nationally has simply brought rent growth back to historical norms. The exceptional gains of 2021–2022 are not being fully reversed in most markets."

— Apartment List Research Team, National Rent Report analysis

Best Markets for Renters to Negotiate (2025)

The markets with the highest vacancy rates and the strongest renter negotiating position in 2025 are Austin, Phoenix, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Nashville. Landlords in these markets are actively offering concessions — free months, reduced deposits, and gift cards — at rates not seen since before the pandemic. If you're in one of these markets, see our guide to negotiating rent for specific tactics.